Hello, friends,
When we opened this year, we did so with my endorsement of Marianne Williamson for the Democratic Primary. Today, we’re going to briefly talk about that.
New Hampshire offered anti-establishment candidates in both parties the best shot they had. For the Republicans, it became a simple head-to-head contest between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. But we aren’t really too concerned with them, so we’ll come back to them at the end.
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results.
More pressingly, in the Democratic primary it offered a vote where Joe Biden’s name wasn’t going to be atop the ballot. Sure, the party’s shenanigans meant that the winner of New Hampshire wouldn’t get delegates, but it represented the best chance for a winner other than Joe Biden. If - ahhh, if - one of Biden’s challengers could pull off a win, or at least pull off a strong showing in the face of the write-in campaign they faced, it would electrify their campaign.
Well, New Hampshire has officially come and gone, and the results, which as I understand it are still kind of trickling in if I understand “Unprocessed write-in” right, aren’t what I was hoping for.
What ended up happening is basically that Joe Biden had such a strong showing while not on the ballot that Biden doubled up on his second closest competitor, and may have gotten as high as 65%. Which doesn’t sound commanding, but is because - again - he didn’t even bother to get on the ballot.
Now, I know there was a movement to write in “Ceasefire” as a vote, instead of voting for Williamson, Phillips, or another candidate. It’s theoretically possible that some of the unprocessed write-ins are that. And, sure, maybe that serves as a message to the Biden campaign that those voters are unreachable if there’s no ceasefire in Gaza. I don’t know.
But the bottom line is that, in our best opportunity to poke Biden in the ribs and say, “Hey you’ve gotta actually at least try on this one,” we who wanted him primaried failed.
But is it over?
Well, no. Not really. I mean, certainly not mathematically. It’s mathematically possible that IF everyone in future states votes for a primary contender, and IF Biden can’t get the vote out in the rest of the country, and - and!…
Practical Progressivism Is Recognizing Reality
In 2020, Joe Biden got 8% of the vote in New Hampshire. In 2024, he got over 50% on a write-in campaign with no effort put in to winning the state. I mean, that just tells you all you need to know, doesn’t it?
I wish I could believe that anyone is going to upset Biden, but unless there’s an even better opportunity out there - another state where Biden isn’t on the ballot, another state where Biden is known to be unpopular, a state where another contender is popular, or there’s a consolidation of the primary challengers behind a single one - it’s simply not going to happen.
BUT.
Remember how in my endorsement of Marianne I made clear that we could achieve something without necessarily beating Biden in the polls? That one of the goals is to get some delegates into the DNC this summer?
That still holds true.
Getting a few solid delegates onto the floor means we might have an opportunity to shape the Democratic platform. That, in turn, means we influence any future Biden administration policies - as well as influence what strategies legislators embrace.
So it feels like that’s gotta be the play, then. At the very least, all the folks who got 1% or 2% need to drop out. In all honesty, unless the campaign has data I simply don’t, and as much as I love her effort and her platform, and really truly wish she had a better shot, Marianne might want to consider dropping out in favor of consolidating the anti-Biden vote behind Philips.
That’s not a testament to candidate quality - I endorsed Marianne because she’s the best - but rather a testament to the facts on the ground. But I believe that Marianne truly wants to make the Democratic party stronger, not weaker. In order to achieve that, it might take sacrificing her personal goals in favor of that overarching priority. I can understand if she has reason to think she polls more strongly in other states, but it might be the difference between getting delegates and not getting delegates, and that needs to be strongly considered.
I know nobody likes to hear their aspirations have failed, but it’s really hard to see any kind of path forward when you can’t at least pull close the guy in a state where the presumptive nominee is not even on the ballot.
Speaking of pulling close…
The Republican Primary Is A Different Story
Take a quick look at this!
Trump won, and won by about 10%, and that’s not a commanding lead in a situation where the Republican non-Trump vote consolidated behind Haley. Now, there are assertions that independent voters crossed into Republican territory to vote for Haley, but that could just as easily be a deflection strategy to make Haley supporters feel down about doing so well.
South Carolina is one of the next primaries, with the Republican event taking place February 24th. It’s the state Haley was the governor of, and it’s worth 50 delegates. Now, her fellow South Carolinian, Senator Tim Scott, has endorsed Trump. That might complicate matters for Haley, splitting the power of what one hopes is her home state advantage.
But it’s another primary where, if I’m reading this right, independents can again choose a primary to vote in. If Independents again choose to join up and vote for Haley, it could make this a tight race - if not a Haley victory.
If Haley can again come close, or even flat-out win, she can really press Trump into a duel for control of the Republican primary. That doesn’t mean she’ll win, but it might mean she can bring out some of the worst of Trump’s qualities for the nation to see.
Your Reaction To The Test Is Part of The Test.
The thing is, when we talked about how the Democratic party was eschewing debates back in April 2023, we talked about how the Democratic party would have been better off with debates. That it would have made the party stronger to see the candidates all respectfully exchanging ideas. How Joe Biden’s presence on the debate stage would be national news, and would help do things like push the Overton Window (which we discussed some, here) to the left. The sort of things that prove Democracy is alive, well, and thriving.
Instead, the Democrats chose to do things like refuse official debates and for state parties to only put one name on their ballots. You know, anti-Democratic things. The things that undercut a “Democracy is on the line” argument.
With the Republicans, it’s not as clear that their debates helped them. For starters, with Trump’s absence, the debates just showed how the second layer down from the presumptive nominee was just about as terrible as Trump. Sure, maybe it pushed the Overton Window to the right some (since the only policies discussed on prime time were Fascist ones), but now that Haley is a solid contender?Trump is going to continue engaging in things like mocking her ethnicity. That’s not really ideal for attracting independents to the cause. It’s actually kind of anti-ideal.
In other words, if the primaries are a party’s test of how coherent and productive they can be, both parties are failing that test, which I guess is good.
After all, both Trump and Haley would likely embrace Project 2025, which we’ve discussed is an atrocious plan to essentially end American Democracy as we know it. Democracy really is in danger.
It’s just that the Democrats aren’t helping, and it’s up to our anti-Biden candidates to figure out how to mitigate that damage.
Thanks for reading.
Thank you for reading The Progressive Cafe. If this article has helped you, please consider signing up for our mailing list. This article is by Jesse Pohlman, a former hyperlocal journalist and sci-fi/fantasy author from Long Island, New York, whose website you can check out here.