Hello, friends.
Last week, we talked about Microsoft wanting to swallow up Nintendo - an unlikely thing, to be sure, but a thing based in some reality, and we established that due to vacation and medical stuff, this publication might be a bit short for the next couple of weeks.
This week, we’re talking about some folks who were not exactly wedded to reality; namely, the seven contenders on stage at the second Republican debate. This is mostly just me venting into the void.
My mother in law had left, my wife had gone to bed, and one of my best friends was asking why he was doing this to himself as he watched a bit before passing out after dinner.
As for me? Well, if you like to see me suffer, subscribe!
I watched just about every cursed minute of that debate.
Now, last time I did this, I gave my general impressions of everyone on the stage. There are no new contenders (and, in fact, we’re down one Asa Hutchinson, who didn’t qualify), so this time I was feeling out where exactly they all stood with regards to the one goal they supposedly have in mind: Winning the nomination.
Or, at least, making it to the third debate.
Tim Scott and Nikki Haley got paired up a couple of times. I noticed Tim was asked to talk first, and Nikki listened; then when Haley started replying, Scott wouldn’t let her. I’d feel bad for her, but I remember the issue with the curtains, too, though I’m not sure it was all at her feet. Both of them seem doomed, but Haley’s apparently polling fairly high for this batch of contenders, so maybe she’s got a few more cards to play.
Vivek Ramaswamy continued to push the strongest MAGA cocktail, and by that I mean he must have been drunk if he thought he’d get away with starting debate 2 with words of kindness after saying some pretty harsh comments in debate 1. Otherwise, in a lot of ways he was the most energetic on the stage. He’ll stay in the race, if only to split the vote away from a stronger candidate like DeSantis or Christie to ensure Trump can win states.
Doug Burgum constantly spoke up and tried to interject himself. He got away with it the first time, but I distinctly remember one of the moderators shutting down a later attempt to get involved in the conversation out of turn. He was unimpressive and his argument amounted to blaming DC. He’s toast.
The moderators were terrible, by the way.
Soooo who do we have left? Chris Christie, Mike Pence, and Ron DeSantis.
Mike Pence is Mike Pence. If you liked what Trump did, Trump’s on back the menu, he’s your guy. If you didn’t, you probably don’t like Pence. What is he even doing there? There’s no niche for him to exploit.
I don’t think DeSantis did anything that’ll pull his numbers out of the death-spiral they’ve been in. I remember him polling 30% in some polls. Apparently, in some taken back in January, he even clocked 40%. In this aggregate by 538, DeSantis was briefly even viewed favorable nation-wide in the same timeframe. That ain’t the case anymore. His relatively high polling numbers mean he’ll stick around, but not for very long at this rate. Most people who were going to consider him - to “try him on,” so to speak - have discovered to their regret that they don’t like him. It’s unlikely his numbers go up based on performances that capture two sides of his: Emotionlessness contrasted with bloodthirstiness. He’s a great “In case Trump’s legal woes catch up to him” person, I guess.
Was Chris Christie A Bright Spot?
Perhaps in the cold oblivion of a black hole, sure, he’d be considered a tiny spark of quantum interference.
The reason I’m singling him out is in no way, shape, or form because he’s good. He’s almost as radical as all the other maniacs up on the stage, he made a fucked-up joke about Jill Biden that should - in a “family values” primary - sink his campaign. But we all know it won’t, so why bother. He’s pretty terrible.
But the thing I noticed is that he got applause right away for criticizing Trump, when that was the opposite of what happened in the first debate. Ron DeSantis basically copied him word-for-word and got applause, too. That was interesting.
But at the end, in a moment where the moderators tried to put on a miniature version of Survivor and convince these Irrelevance Island-bound dummies to turn on each other, Christie had the best moment of anyone throughout the night. He showed respect to each of his opponents - even, to a limited extent, the group’s hazing victim Vivek.
He did so by pointing out that they all respected the process enough to show up, and Trump did not.
And he got applause for it.
And That’s Why I Watched
I’m not interested in Fashy talking points, and I’m certainly not interested in regressive or conservative governance. Fuck that.
But I am interested in how iron-tight Trump’s control over the party is, and the party blinked a little bit. Debate 1 was all about the man who wasn’t on the stage and how nobody on the stage really mattered. Debate 2 was, in a surprise twist, about how only the people on the stage mattered.
Oh, sure, the smart money is still on Trump winning!
But if Christie can start accumulating a half a percent from Doug Burgum and 1% from Vivek Ramaswamy and 2% from Meatball (hey, it’s a rare example of a good nickname) Ron DeSantis and one or so from each of the others, suddenly he’s polling…Well, let’s make up a number and call it 12%. Let’s pretend he gets to 12%.
He’d be practically tied with DeSantis, leaving Scott, Haley, and even Pence behind. Only Ramaswamy and DeSantis would really measure up. Burgum would drop out quickly enough, followed by Scott and Pence. Their votes get reapportioned. Like I said earlier, a lot of voters already flirted with Ron DeSantis and didn’t like him very much. Those votes have three main places left to go: Haley, Ramaswamy, and Christie.
But Is It Ever Gonna Be Enough?
Probably not?
Chris Christie is abrasive in his own right. Maybe he’s gonna turn out to be the perfect kind of troll to force Trump to make errors, or maybe Trump’s polling drops if and when he’s convicted of a crime. Maybe Trump’s already made those errors by not attending the debates. Maybe everyone else drops out and consolidates behind Christie.
Haley is the other contender for that aggregation process I mentioned, one I expect to benefit Christie, but could be wrong about. Haley is probably the smartest person on that stage, and honestly might be the least offensive of all Republican candidates. Again, that’s…That’s not much. Pairing her up with Scott was a cruel quirk of them both representing South Carolina, but maybe she comes out of that exchange looking dignified in the face of an offense, and people flock to her. I don’t know.
Maybe one or the other drops out, or even maybe the both of them pair up to flip a coin on who would be President and who would be VP.
But it’s just as likely that Ramaswamy’s entire reason for being there is to be a spoiler vote to ensure that “I didn’t vote for Trump” still helps Trump make it into the General, in exchange for a very likely-looking VP nod. I can’t think of anyone else who is carrying nearly as much water for Trump as Vivek is.
Christie can get 40% of the vote, Trump 45%, and Ramaswamy 15% and that means Trump wins it all - and maybe for once he pays back someone who helped him along the way, especially if that someone is a nice defense against (in my opinion, obvious - go Google how Trump used to rent his apartments) allegations of White Supremacy.
In Other News
- At the time of writing this (Thursday Night), it looks like there’s going to be a government shutdown at the end of the week. Probably millions of people will suffer. It’s sickening. Republicans spent most of their efforts to day getting shut down by their own witnesses that question the Impeachment of Joe Biden.
- TikTok is talking about clamping down on Queer/LGBTQIA+ creators for Kenya’s benefit. You know, for all Republicans talk about how bad TikTok is, they certainly bend over backwards to support regressive points of view.
- We’ve talked previously about the WGA strikes, and here we are - the WGA seems to have won! Now for the actors, and then for the UAW, and then whoever is next.
Thank you for reading The Progressive Cafe. If this article has helped you, please consider signing up for our mailing list. This article is by Jesse Pohlman, a sci-fi/fantasy author from Long Island, New York, whose website you can check out here.